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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported a 4.74% decline in Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, which fell from $877.07 in 2024 to $835.49 in 2025. This downward trend continues a decade-long decline from its peak of $3,220 in 2014, according to data released on Thursday on the IMF’s official website.
GDP per capita is a key economic indicator that measures a nation’s economic output per person, reflecting living standards and overall economic well-being.
IMF Projects Growth in Coming Years
Despite the current decline, the IMF anticipates a rebound in GDP per capita, expecting it to surpass $1,000 by 2028. The data also places Nigeria and most sub-Saharan African countries within the $500 to $2,500 GDP per capita range, with some nations falling below $500.
The decline comes at a time when Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is conducting a GDP rebasing exercise to incorporate new sectors, including digital economy activities, pension funds, the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), modular refineries, quarrying, and informal labor contributions.
Business Confidence Remains Resilient
Despite economic uncertainties, Nigeria’s private sector has shown resilience, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from Stanbic IBTC Bank. The PMI report highlights steady growth in business activity and new orders since the end of 2024, with firms expanding operations and hiring more workers in January 2025.
“Nigeria’s private sector activity continued its positive momentum in early 2025, though at a slightly weaker pace than December 2024,” said Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank.
He also noted that inflationary pressures remain a concern, with headline inflation averaging 33.1% in 2024, driven by foreign exchange depreciation, rising fuel prices, food supply constraints, and increased seasonal demand.
Diverging Economic Growth Projections
The IMF projects a 3.2% GDP growth rate for Nigeria in 2025, with inflation expected to decline to 25%. However, this estimate is lower than the 5.5% growth forecasted by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), which released its 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report under the theme ‘Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond.’
According to NESG Chief Economist Olusegun Omisakin, a 5.5% GDP growth rate is attainable if the government sustains economic reforms. However, inefficient policies and economic constraints could limit growth to 3.4%, while a reversal of reforms could cause it to drop further to 2.7%.
At the same event, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso projected 4.1% GDP growth in 2025, attributing the anticipated expansion to:
- Stable crude oil prices and improved domestic oil production
- Increased refining capacity from the Dangote refinery and revitalization of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries
- A more stable exchange rate to support macroeconomic stability
“The success of Nigeria’s economic trajectory will depend on effective collaboration between monetary and fiscal policymakers, alongside private sector participation,” Cardoso stated.
With economic uncertainties still looming, the effectiveness of Nigeria’s economic policies in 2025 will be crucial in determining whether the country can reverse its GDP per capita decline and achieve sustained economic stability.
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