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The performance of Nigerian banks in the second half of 2025 is expected to be shaped largely by their progress in meeting recapitalisation mandates and maintaining dividend payouts, according to analysts at investment firm Comercio Partners.
In its H2 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook titled “Reconfiguration: From Global Trade to Quantum Innovation, a New Economic Era Emerges,” the firm emphasized that market sentiment will likely favour banks demonstrating capital strength, consistent profitability, and dividend clarity.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently disclosed that eight banks have already met the revised capital requirements ahead of the March 2026 deadline. Under the directive issued in March 2024, commercial banks with international licenses must raise their capital base to ₦500 billion, while national and regional banks are to meet thresholds of ₦200 billion and ₦50 billion, respectively. Non-interest banks must attain ₦20 billion (national) and ₦10 billion (regional).
CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso confirmed during the MPC’s 301st meeting in Abuja that “eight banks have fully met the recapitalisation requirements, while others are making progress towards meeting the deadline.”
Beyond recapitalisation, analysts note that the phase-out of forbearance on loans and Single Obligor Limits will also impact the sector’s performance. Banks are required to submit capital restoration plans outlining strategies for full compliance, including cost-cutting measures, risk asset reduction, significant risk transfers, and operational restructuring.
Comercio Partners stated:
“Market performance will reward recapitalisation progress and the reinstatement of dividends following recent forbearance policies. The sector’s narrative is transitioning from rapid growth to sustainable profitability, anchored by capital resilience and disciplined risk management.”
The report also highlighted that although FX revaluation gains will diminish due to naira stability and the implementation of a 70% windfall tax, interest income will continue to play a central role—though its dominance may be challenged by tightening margins and rising funding costs.
Banks with strong fundamentals and clean balance sheets, such as GTCO, are expected to outperform. In contrast, others facing regulatory scrutiny—such as Access Bank, Zenith Bank, and First Bank—may experience valuation pressures unless dividend clarity is restored.
Furthermore, Comercio Partners emphasized that future success through the 2025–2026 cycle will rest on three core levers: prudent margin and funding cost management, strategic capital positioning, and robust asset quality governance.
Complementing this view, CardinalStone Partners maintained that the medium- to long-term outlook for Nigerian banks remains positive, with near-term gains possible if select institutions exceed expectations on dividend commitments.
“We remain constructive on fundamentally sound banks with clean balance sheets and scalable earnings models,” CardinalStone added.
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