The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has launched its 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report under the theme, “Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond.” Released on January 23, 2025, the report delves into Nigeria’s reform agenda initiated in 2023, examining its progress while outlining pathways for economic stabilisation and sustained reform.
Challenges and Achievements
NESG Chairman, Mr. Niyi Yusuf, set the tone for the event by reviewing the strides made in 2024. “Significant progress was achieved last year as key conditions began to stabilise,” he noted, while highlighting ongoing issues such as inflationary pressures, food insecurity, infrastructure gaps, and exchange rate volatility.
He shared key milestones, including a trade surplus of $8 billion in 2024, up from $1 billion in 2023, and an economic growth rate of 3.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to 2.5% in the same period in 2023. However, Yusuf noted that inflation remained a critical challenge, averaging 33.2% in 2024, exacerbated by climate-related disruptions and rising food costs, leaving over 33 million Nigerians food insecure.
Strategic Focus for 2025
Mr. Yusuf emphasized the importance of cohesive policy alignment in driving economic transformation. “To achieve economic stabilisation, Nigeria must consolidate its monetary, fiscal, social safety, trade, and regulatory strategies. This alignment is essential for transitioning to the Consolidation Phase of the Economic Transformation Roadmap, fostering an environment conducive to investment and growth-enhancing sectors.”
Economic Projections and Key Policies
Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, NESG’s Chief Economist and Director of Research, presented forward-looking insights, projecting that Nigeria could achieve a GDP growth rate of 5.5% in 2025 if reforms are sustained. However, inefficient implementation could restrict growth to 3.4%, while reform reversals might result in a decline to 2.7%. “The quality of policy execution will determine whether Nigeria meets its stabilisation objectives,” he noted.
Highlighting the need for exchange rate stability, Dr. Omisakin added, “Operating at an exchange rate of ₦1,200 to $1 will significantly bolster economic stability.”
In his keynote address, Central Bank Governor Mr. Olayemi Cardoso announced transformative measures, including establishing a Compliance Department to enhance transparency and align with global standards. He also unveiled plans for a Foreign Exchange Code aimed at reducing disparities between bureau de change and official exchange rates while attracting foreign investments.
Global Perspectives
World Bank Senior Economist for Nigeria, Dr. Samer Matta, stressed the need to protect vulnerable populations amid reforms. “Scaling up and financing social interventions are critical to ensuring sustainable growth,” he said. Similarly, IMF Country Representative for Nigeria, Dr. Christian H. Ebeke, highlighted the inflationary risks of deficit financing through monetary expansion. “Fiscal discipline must be improved to tackle inflation,” he stated.
Fiscal Policy Insights
Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, pointed out that borrowing, rather than printing money, is a more sustainable approach to deficit financing. He noted the progress made in tax reforms, including enhanced VAT collection and streamlined tax processes, as positive steps toward fiscal sustainability.
The Way Forward
NESG CEO, Dr. Tayo Aduloju, concluded the event by underscoring the importance of governance and partnerships. “Nigeria’s economic future relies on strategic collaborations and effective governance,” he stated.
The 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report serves as a roadmap for policymakers, businesses, and stakeholders, offering actionable insights to drive economic stabilisation and inclusive growth
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