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With just four months to the close of the National Broadband Plan (NBP) 2020–2025, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) is standing by its ambitious target of achieving 70% broadband penetration by December 2025. Yet, the numbers tell a story of steep hurdles—fiber vandalism, subscriber losses, rising tariffs, and dwindling investor confidence.
“We are targeting 70% broadband penetration by the end of this year through strategic pricing frameworks and incentives,” said Aminu Maida, NCC’s Executive Vice Chairman, represented by Abraham Oshadami, Executive Commissioner of Technical Services, at the African Peering and Interconnection Forum (AfPIF) in Lagos.
According to Maida, the commission is intensifying efforts to expand fibre optic infrastructure, drive 5G rollout, and boost rural connectivity. “The 90,000-kilometer fibre project is already familiar to many of you, and we will continue to expand our digital backbone,” he noted.
As of June 2025, broadband penetration stood at 48.78%, up from 45.61% in January. The pace, though faster than in recent years, still leaves a daunting gap of over 21 percentage points to be bridged in six months. By comparison, broadband penetration grew just 1.90% in 2024, fell by 4.49% in 2023, and declined by 2.01% in 2021. The sector’s best performance—6.53% growth in 2020—remains far below what is now required.
The setbacks are compounded by subscriber losses. NCC data show that over one million internet users dropped off in the first half of 2025, largely due to higher tariffs, the SIM-NIN linkage exercise, and rising device costs. This trend directly undermines the 70% goal.
Despite the headwinds, Maida points to progress. The Internet Exchange Point of Nigeria (IXPN) hit a record traffic peak of one terabit per second in April 2025—a milestone in the nation’s digital journey.
Still, persistent challenges cloud the outlook. Fibre cuts remain rampant, with operators reporting 30 to 43 incidents daily, mostly from vandalism, theft, or road construction. Cybersecurity concerns, flagged in Deloitte’s Nigeria Cybersecurity Outlook Report 2024, add further strain, with ransomware and insider threats eating into operators’ margins.
Investor confidence remains shaky despite billion-dollar infrastructure commitments announced this year. Regulatory uncertainty, high operational costs, and foreign exchange volatility continue to weigh heavily on the sector.
“Nigeria has a fantastic broadband plan,” said Israel Olatunji Tijani, founder of ChatVE Limited. “But we still see over 130 million Nigerians living more than 50 kilometers from a fibre landing point. That means millions remain digitally stranded, even if the numbers look impressive on paper.”
As the NBP’s five-year cycle draws to a close, the 70% target looms large. Achieving it would represent a symbolic victory for Nigeria’s digital ambitions. Falling short, however, may simply confirm the structural barriers that have long held the sector back.
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