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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.9%, reflecting stronger domestic fundamentals, improved investor sentiment, and the country’s limited exposure to global trade tensions.
This marks a 0.5 percentage point increase from the IMF’s July 2025 projection and nearly one percentage point higher than its April forecast. The upward revision was announced in the Fund’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), themed “Global Economy in Flux.”
According to the report, Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2025—slightly below the 4.1% growth recorded in 2024—but will strengthen further to 4.2% in 2026.
The IMF attributed the improved outlook to a combination of higher oil output, supportive fiscal policies, and reforms in the energy and financial sectors that have attracted renewed capital inflows. It also noted that recent foreign exchange adjustments have enhanced transparency and efficiency in Nigeria’s currency markets.
The Fund added that Nigeria’s economy remains relatively shielded from the global tariff war triggered by new U.S. trade measures, which have dampened growth prospects in several advanced economies.
Despite the optimistic growth projection, the IMF cautioned that inflation remains elevated, though it is expected to ease gradually. Average consumer prices are forecast to fall from 31.4% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2025, and further to 22.0% in 2026. End-of-period inflation is projected at 21% in 2025 and 18% in 2026, reflecting a slow disinflation process driven by persistent food and energy costs.
On Nigeria’s external position, the current account surplus is projected to narrow from 6.8% of GDP in 2024 to 5.7% in 2025, and further to 3.6% in 2026, as rising imports offset oil export gains.
The IMF also confirmed that the new projections incorporate a major rebasing of Nigeria’s national accounts, with 2019 adopted as the new base year. The updated data capture previously underreported sectors such as the digital economy, informal agriculture, and modular refining, effectively increasing nominal GDP by over 40%.
While commending the country’s progress, the IMF urged Nigeria to maintain credible fiscal and monetary policies, strengthen institutional capacity, and accelerate structural reforms to ensure macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth.
Speaking at the WEO press briefing, Denz Igan, Division Chief in the IMF’s Research Department, noted:
“For 2025, we have revised Nigeria’s growth rate upward to 3.9%, 0.5 percentage point higher than our previous forecast. We’ve also upgraded the 2026 projection to 4.2%. These improvements reflect reduced uncertainty, a stronger exchange rate, improved financial conditions, and higher investor confidence.”
He added that improved hydrocarbon output and enhanced security in producing regions have further supported the positive outlook.
“Together, these factors signal a more resilient Nigerian economy, underpinned by reforms and renewed policy credibility,” Igan concluded.
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