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A new macroeconomic outlook by Comercio Partners says disciplined monetary policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN) could help stabilise the foreign exchange market and reduce inflationary pressures in Nigeria in 2026.
The report, titled “Policy Shock to Structural Reset: Charting a Sustainable Economic Path,” projects that under a best-case scenario, the naira could strengthen to about N1,200 per dollar, while inflation may decline to between 10% and 11%. It also forecasts economic growth of about 4.5% in 2026.
According to the report, the outlook reflects improving monetary policy credibility, stronger agricultural output, and relatively stable oil prices, which together could support a more stable macroeconomic environment.
Research analyst at Comercio Partners, Olamide Ologunagbe, noted that the CBN demonstrated greater policy independence and data-driven decision-making throughout 2025. She pointed to the central bank’s decision to maintain a tight policy stance for most of the year before implementing a modest 50-basis-point rate cut toward the end of the year.
Ologunagbe said the bank’s monetary discipline, alongside improved food production and foreign exchange stability, could drive inflation lower in the first half of 2026.
The report describes Nigeria’s economic outlook as “constructive but constrained,” projecting real GDP growth of about 4.5%, supported largely by expansion in the non-oil sector, improving credit conditions, and stable external balances.
The services sector is expected to remain the main engine of growth, with information and communications technology (ICT), trade, transport, and financial services likely to expand faster than overall economic output.
Agriculture is projected to record modest recovery, provided weather conditions remain favourable and logistics and security challenges improve gradually.
However, the manufacturing sector is expected to grow at a slower pace due to persistent constraints such as high energy costs and weak domestic demand.
The report also expects monetary policy to gradually shift from a tight stance toward cautious easing in 2026. As inflation moderates and the foreign exchange market stabilises, the CBN may reduce policy rates in phases to improve credit transmission and encourage investment.
Such easing could support consumer spending, private investment, and equity market performance, although the pace of rate cuts is expected to remain measured due to lingering inflation risks.
On the fiscal front, the report projects that government policy will remain expansionary, with the 2026 budget expected to record a deficit exceeding 4.28% of GDP.
Capital spending is likely to focus on infrastructure and social programmes, while debt servicing is expected to continue consuming a significant portion of government revenues. The sustainability of fiscal policy will depend largely on revenue mobilisation, oil price stability, and borrowing costs.
The external sector outlook is described as broadly stable but still vulnerable, with oil exports and portfolio inflows expected to remain key sources of foreign exchange liquidity.
Comercio Partners said the inflation outlook for the first half of 2026 remains uncertain, with potential risks stemming from policy decisions, exchange rate movements, and supply disruptions.
Under its base-case scenario, headline inflation is expected to settle within the 14–16% range, assuming continued policy coordination, gradual monetary easing, and relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
In the best-case scenario, inflation could fall to between 10% and 11% if exchange rate stability is sustained, policy coordination remains strong, and agricultural production improves significantly.
However, the report warns that a worst-case scenario could see inflation rise again to between 18% and 22% if policy missteps or renewed pressure in the foreign exchange market weaken confidence in the economy. Under such conditions, the naira could depreciate to around N1,700 per dollar or lower.
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