Kenya: M-PESA’s Market Share Declines for Sixth Straight Quarter as Airtel Money Rises

Safaricom’s mobile money platform, M-PESA, has experienced a continued decline in market dominance, marking its sixth consecutive quarterly drop, according to new data from the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA). M-PESA’s market share fell to 90.8% in Q1 2025, down from 97% in Q4 2023, reflecting intensifying competition in Kenya’s dynamic mobile financial services sector.

In contrast, Airtel Money has steadily gained ground, growing its market share to 9.1% in Q1 2025, up from 8.9% the previous quarter and a significant leap from just 2.9% two years ago. The growth has been fueled by competitive pricing, fee refunds, and expanded agent partnerships — notably with major supermarket chains such as Naivas — boosting service accessibility and user engagement.

Mobile money subscriptions grew by 7.3% to 45.4 million in the quarter, driving a penetration rate of 86.6%. This growth aligns with a broader rebound in mobile activity, with SIM subscriptions rising 6.7% to 76.2 million, spurred by aggressive win-back campaigns from telcos.

The number of registered mobile money agents also increased by 5.5% to 417,000 — an expansion that has widened distribution access across both urban and underserved areas. While M-PESA still leads with over 299,000 active agents, Airtel’s strategic expansion efforts have started to yield meaningful traction.

Cost competitiveness remains a major factor in Airtel’s appeal. For example, sending KES 1,000 ($7.70) to other networks costs KES 11 ($0.085) via Airtel Money, compared to KES 13 ($0.10) on M-PESA. Withdrawal fees are also lower on Airtel by KES 2 ($0.015), providing a cumulative cost advantage for frequent users.

M-PESA’s market erosion began in earnest following Kenya’s 2022 introduction of mobile money interoperability, a regulatory shift that enabled seamless transactions across providers and diminished Safaricom’s historical network lock-in. Airtel has capitalised on this by offering incentives such as airtime cashback for bank-to-wallet transfers, successfully luring cost-sensitive users.

Still, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has yet to implement agent-level interoperability, which would allow customers to use any agent regardless of their mobile money provider. Should this be rolled out, it could significantly lower switching barriers and further level the competitive playing field.

Despite the shifting landscape, M-PESA remains a market leader, processing over 30 billion transactions annuallyworth more than KES 38.29 trillion ($296 billion) and serving over 34 million users. However, the rise of Airtel Money signals that momentum in Kenya’s mobile money ecosystem is becoming increasingly multipolar.

Looking ahead, CBK’s upcoming Fast Payment System (FPS) — designed to enable instant fund transfers across banks and digital payment platforms — may catalyse further competition, reinforcing a trend toward more inclusive and interoperable digital financial infrastructure.