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ASML, the world’s largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, has issued a warning that its growth outlook for 2026 is now uncertain, as chipmakers delay investment decisions due to unresolved U.S. tariff issues.
Speaking during a media call on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said that the lack of clarity surrounding potential U.S. tariffs—particularly on European goods—is causing hesitation among clients planning major factory builds in the U.S.
“Clarity is what customers are looking for before they can really finalize their views as to what they’re going to do,” Dassen said.
ASML shares fell by as much as 7.8%, their sharpest decline since October, pulling down other European semiconductor equipment makers including ASM International, Besi, and Soitec.
Tariffs Could Spike Machine Prices
One of the key concerns is a proposed 30% U.S. tariff on European exports, which could raise the price of ASML’s flagship extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine from €250 million to €325 million per unit. The costs could escalate further due to the cross-border movement of components between the Netherlands and the U.S. during manufacturing.
ASML has stated it intends to pass the added cost on to customers if such tariffs take effect. However, Dassen emphasized the cascading effect this uncertainty is having on the sector.
Growth Plans on Hold
CEO Christophe Fouquet, in an internal company interview, echoed concerns over escalating macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty—including tariff tensions—which are clouding the company’s visibility for 2026.
“While we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage,” said Fouquet.
If the uncertainty translates into lower spending or further delays, 2026 could mark ASML’s first year of flat revenue growth since 2012, breaking more than a decade of expansion.
Despite the clouded outlook, some investors remain optimistic. Han Dieperink, CIO at Aureus Investment, said demand indicators were solid and that he was “not worried about the upcoming year.”
Strong Q2 Results Offer Reassurance
In Q2 2025, ASML reported net bookings of €5.54 billion, significantly above analyst expectations of €4.44 billion, according to Visible Alpha. This also marked a strong jump from €3.94 billion recorded in the previous quarter.
EUV lithography machines accounted for €2.3 billion, or 42%, of these bookings. These highly advanced systems are critical for producing cutting-edge chips used in products like Apple’s iPhones and Nvidia’s GPUs, especially amid the growing demand driven by AI innovation.
Meanwhile, Chinese buyers continued to play a key role in ASML’s order book, representing 27% of sales over the past three quarters. This comes despite mounting U.S.-led export controls, with Chinese chipmakers reportedly opting for older-generation tools ahead of possible further restrictions.
While ASML’s immediate financials remain robust, the firm’s ability to sustain long-term growth may hinge on how quickly global trade tensions—particularly U.S.-EU tariff discussions—are resolved.
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