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Artificial Intelligence (AI) could increase the value of global trade in goods and services by up to 40% by 2040, but the absence of inclusive policies may deepen existing economic divides, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has cautioned in its latest World Trade Report.
According to the report, lower trade costs and productivity gains from AI adoption could drive global trade growth by 34–37% over the next 15 years, while global GDP could expand by 12–13%.
“AI could be a bright spot for trade in an increasingly complex environment,” noted WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill, who emphasised that the technology is already reshaping the global economy and international commerce by reducing costs and enhancing efficiency.
The report outlined how AI applications—ranging from logistics optimisation to regulatory compliance and communications—can create new opportunities for businesses, especially smaller firms. For instance, AI-powered translation tools are expected to lower language barriers, enabling small producers and retailers to access international markets more easily. With improved digital infrastructure, low-income countries could see export growth rise by as much as 11%.
However, the WTO warned of the risks of uneven adoption. “Without targeted investment and inclusive policies, AI could exacerbate divides, leaving some workers and even entire economies behind,” the report stated.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala underscored the need for governments to carefully manage AI’s impact on labour markets. “AI could upend jobs—transforming some while displacing others. Managing these shifts requires investments in education, skills, retraining, and social safety nets,” she said at the report’s launch in Geneva.
The WTO also stressed the importance of predictable global trade rules and reducing tariffs on critical inputs for AI technologies, such as semiconductors, to ensure that the benefits of AI are widely shared across economies.
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