By 
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the country’s external reserves will rise to $51.04bn in 2026, up from an estimated $45bn in 2025, reflecting expectations of improved foreign exchange inflows and sustained macroeconomic stability.
The projection is contained in the Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, 2026, titled “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty,” released by the apex bank on Tuesday. According to the report, Nigeria’s external reserves stood at $45.45bn as of December 29, 2025, following steady accretion in recent weeks.
The CBN said the anticipated growth in reserves would be supported by reduced pressure in the foreign exchange market, driven by higher oil earnings, planned sovereign bond issuances and stronger diaspora remittance inflows. It also highlighted the expected contribution of increased domestic refining capacity, particularly the expansion of the Dangote refinery.
“The external reserves are projected at $51.04bn in 2026, compared with $45.01bn in 2025,” the bank stated. “This outlook is underpinned by anticipated improvements in oil receipts, diaspora remittances, and sovereign bond issuance. In addition, the expansion of the Dangote refinery’s nameplate capacity to 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and ultimately to 1.4 million barrels per day in the medium term is expected to further support reserve accumulation.”
On developments in the FX market, the CBN noted that ongoing reforms are expected to enhance efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and Bureau de Change rates, and help sustain exchange rate stability. Improved local refining capacity, the bank added, should also reduce demand for foreign exchange used in fuel imports.
The apex bank further projected a continued slowdown in inflation, with headline inflation expected to ease to 12.94 per cent in 2026 and decline further to 10.75 per cent in 2027. This outlook aligns with recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics, which shows a steady moderation in inflation over consecutive months.
As of November 2025, headline inflation declined to 14.45 per cent from 16.05 per cent in October, although the Consumer Price Index rose month-on-month to 130.5 points from 128.9 points, reflecting persistent price pressures.
According to the CBN, the projected disinflation trend is anchored on stability in the foreign exchange and energy markets, the lagged effects of previous monetary tightening, and improved policy coordination. It also expects easing food prices and moderation in premium motor spirit prices, driven by increased competition in the oil midstream segment, to support the decline in inflation.
The bank noted that faster moderation in food inflation is likely to stem from higher food supply, improved security in key agricultural regions, the rollout of agriculture-focused policies, and favourable weather conditions.
In terms of monetary policy, the CBN said it would adopt a flexible approach during the transition phase to balance price stability and economic growth. Key policy instruments, including the Monetary Policy Rate and the Cash Reserve Ratio, would be adjusted as necessary to manage money supply growth and maintain a non-accelerating inflation path.
Looking ahead to 2026, the bank expects monetary conditions to remain relatively loose, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability observed in 2025, as inflationary and exchange rate risks continue to ease. It added that external conditions and fiscal operations would largely influence the trajectory of monetary aggregates, particularly through exchange rate movements affecting foreign currency deposits.
On the fiscal side, the CBN described the 2026 outlook as broadly positive, supported by rising crude oil production and the phased implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, which is expected to strengthen non-oil revenue mobilisation. However, it cautioned that downside risks remain.
The bank warned that a sustained decline in global oil prices below budget benchmarks or unexpected disruptions to oil production could weaken projected revenues. Other risks include high debt service obligations, extra-budgetary spending, and potential increases in statutory transfers linked to pre-election spending.
While crude oil output is expected to improve, the CBN noted that the sector remains vulnerable to global shocks. It added that strong non-oil revenue performance in 2026 depends largely on the effective implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, as well as improved tax awareness, compliance and administration.
In the financial sector, the apex bank expressed concern over rising non-performing loans and their potential impact on banks’ profitability and balance sheets. It warned that worsening asset quality could strain capital and liquidity buffers, disrupt financial intermediation, and undermine market confidence if not carefully managed.
Although recent improvements in capital adequacy and liquidity ratios provide some cushioning, the CBN stressed that the banking system remains exposed to macroeconomic shocks, underscoring the need for sustained vigilance and proactive risk management.
Comments