Nigeria: CBN MPC Member Predicts Naira Could Strengthen to ₦1,400/$1 by Year-End

The naira may appreciate further to around ₦1,400 per dollar before the end of 2025, according to projections from Professor Murtala Sagagi, a member of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Sagagi, in his personal statement at the MPC’s July meeting—recently published by the CBN—attributed the positive outlook to a combination of factors, including increased crude oil production, fresh capital inflows, and an improved balance of payments.

He, however, cautioned that Nigeria’s long-standing structural challenges remain a drag on sustainable growth.
“Previous structural reforms over the last three decades have achieved limited success in addressing rigidities in the economy. Heavy dependence on debt financing and limited diversification continue to expose Nigeria to shocks from global commodity price fluctuations,” he said.

Sagagi noted that despite reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidy and liberalisation of the exchange rate, government spending appetite has remained high. Nigeria’s total public debt rose from ₦144.67 trillion at the end of 2024 to ₦149.39 trillion by March 2025, underscoring rising fiscal pressures from debt servicing obligations.

Also commenting on exchange rate dynamics, Bala Moh’d Bello, another MPC member, highlighted that recent monetary policy adjustments have reinforced stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market.

“Speculative activities in the FX market have dropped significantly, fostering greater transparency and strengthening market-based price discovery. Investor confidence has improved, aided by tighter liquidity conditions and effective FX management reforms,” Bello said.

He added that Nigeria’s external reserves climbed to $40.11 billion as of July 18, 2025, providing roughly 9.5 months of import cover. This, he noted, will further support exchange rate stability in the medium term.

The projections from MPC members come at a time when policymakers are seeking to balance growth with inflationary pressures, while also working to restore confidence in the Nigerian financial markets.