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Nigeria is set to release rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures in 2025—the first in over a decade—a move analysts say could enhance fiscal transparency, stimulate investor interest, and realign economic policy with current realities.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) initially targeted January 2025 for the release, following an October 2024 announcement. However, the data’s delayed publication signals the scale and complexity of the task. According to Statistician-General Adeyemi Adeniran, the rebasing is not about presenting a larger figure but about “delivering accurate, timely data that enables smarter policy and planning.”
Nigeria’s last GDP rebasing in 2014 revealed underrepresented sectors such as ICT, film, and financial services, propelling its economy from $270 billion to $510 billion and positioning it as Africa’s largest economy. That revision catalysed foreign direct investment (FDI), which surged to $60 billion in 2014.
The 2025 rebasing will incorporate emerging sectors, updated consumption patterns, and improved data-gathering tools to reflect Nigeria’s current economic structure. Development economist Dr. Aliyu Ilias noted the update could reposition Nigeria’s ranking in Africa, potentially returning it to the continent’s top spot.
“Rebasing is not just a statistical exercise—it’s a roadmap to unlock hidden potential,” he said, pointing to entertainment, informal trade, and tech-driven services as areas previously excluded from official GDP figures.
An analysis by Proshare Nigeria projects that the revised GDP could climb to approximately $490 billion, offering a truer picture of national output and informing more effective fiscal planning.
According to Seun Onigbinde, Director of Civic Technology group BudgIT, public trust is critical to the process. He emphasised that GDP revisions must reflect the economic impact of public policy over time. “The last rebasing captured gains from telecom reforms and banking recapitalisation. This one must show how today’s reforms are reshaping the economy,” he said.
Former Zenith Bank Chief Economist Marcel Okeke underscored the international standards guiding the process. “This isn’t about manipulating figures,” he stated. “It’s about reflecting activities that were previously unaccounted for, especially in the informal and service-based sectors.”
However, he cautioned that while a higher nominal GDP may improve debt-to-GDP ratios and investor perception, structural challenges like currency volatility remain. “Without stabilising the naira and boosting productivity, the benefits of rebasing could be limited,” he warned.
Investor Sentiment and Policy Alignment
International stakeholders are watching the rebasing closely. A more diversified GDP can improve Nigeria’s creditworthiness and draw funding for infrastructure and development. Executive Vice President of NNPC Ltd., Udy Ntia, told participants at CERAWeek in Houston that Nigeria has already attracted $17 billion in new investments, crediting the Petroleum Industry Act and regulatory reforms.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates Nigeria’s economy shrank from $477 billion in 2022 to $375 billion in 2023. However, the IMF’s Nigeria Mission Chief, Axel Schimmelpfennig, believes those figures underestimate true capacity. He pointed to reforms such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification as factors improving investor confidence. “When investors know they can repatriate returns, they’re more willing to commit capital,” he said.
Domestically, the rebasing will help improve tax efficiency, allocate social spending more effectively, and support data-driven policy. “Budgeting without current data is like flying blind,” said BudgIT Country Director Gabriel Okeowo. “The rebasing will sharpen our focus on poverty reduction, infrastructure, and job creation.”
The Federal Ministry of Finance noted that the update will also strengthen Nigeria’s ability to craft precise monetary and fiscal policy, and align its economic data with global benchmarks.
Not a Silver Bullet
While rebasing offers statistical clarity, economists warn it is no substitute for structural reforms. Premium Times columnist Zainab Suleiman Okino observed that nominal growth must translate into improved living standards.
“To be meaningful, rebasing must be paired with real progress—on infrastructure, security, and ease of doing business,” she said.
President Bola Tinubu’s administration has pledged broader reforms to stimulate job creation, boost manufacturing, and diversify the economy beyond oil. While challenges remain, the rebased GDP figures will offer Nigeria’s most accurate economic snapshot in over ten years.
“This is more than a statistical update,” Adeniran concluded. “It is a foundation for credible policymaking and sustainable growth. With clarity comes confidence—and with confidence, investment follows.”
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